Shots From the Dome

In a chat today with the David Thorpe, who runs IMG, the pro training academy where Nick Calathes was working out before he made the decision to join Panathnaikos, had this to say:

Noam (Israel): Any thoughts on Calathes going to Greece?

David Thorpe: I’m terribly disappointed that he won’t be in the NBA next year. But the offer was incredible. Think of it like this-should he have played for another year for Billy Donovan for free, or for one of the world’s best coaches for $1million on one of the world’s best teams?

Of more immediate interest to Gator fans, Heath Cline and Franz Beard note Billy Donovan’s pursuit of point guard help for next year, one of whom seems to be Philadelphia prospect Jesse “Booge” Morgan, a 6-4, 180-pound PG. Apparently, he’ll know some time in June if he’s able to qualify or not. Rivals/ESPN has his him listed as a shooting guard, while Scout.com has him as a point guard.

It looks like he was originally from Olney High School in Philadelphia, but he’s now listed as being from The Preparatory Charter School, also in Pennsylvania. I found 3 clips of him online that I’m embedding below that I think may be from his junior year, if you’re interested. He is in the blue jersey wearing #5 in the first, wears white in the second, and in the third video he is the taller guard again wearing #5 being fed for baskets by the smaller point guard.

He looks to have nice range on his jump shot and a nice handle. The first two videos are both of Olney vs. Bartram, another Philly school, with the second one a playoff game.

It’s a little unclear right now whether Nick Calathes’ name will remain eligible in the 2009 NBA Draft now that he has or is signing with the Greek professional team Panathinaikos, but I had assumed that when that happened, it would be in the 2nd round. By doing that, an NBA team would maintain its flexibility when they brought him back to the U.S., and wouldn’t be locked into the rookie salary scale.

Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress.com, always dropping knowledge, had some interesting speculation and information in his May 24 Draft Roundup on the subject. Although his statement that “Calathes could very well have gone in the 30’s and ended up with a non-guaranteed contract, only to get cut in training, as many second rounders often are” was expected, his information about why he MIGHT still be a first rounder was not:

“If anything, Calathes may have improved his draft stock with this move. There are a number of teams in the late first round—such as New Orleans, Minnesota, Oklahoma City and Chicago who either have multiple picks or may not be interested in adding another guaranteed contract/roster spot to their team at this point.”

1. Two straight NIT appearances on the heels of back-to-back championships.

2. The early departure of the assist record holder who just happened to be the team’s leading scorer and 2nd-leading rebounder.

3. The seemingly overnight resurgence of rival Kentucky to a top-ranked recruiting class and national prominence.

4. An overall sense of turmoil after Billy Donovan’s momentary dalliance with the Orlando Magic and what seems to be a steady stream of transfers or early entries.

Conventional wisdom says that the Gator basketball team is poised for even more mediocrity and another NIT appearance.

But… are things truly that bad? Even taking a worst-case scenario of Nick Calathes’ departure and coupling it with injuries preventing G Adam Allen and F Eloy Vargas from possibly playing this year — even if 5-8 PG Erving Walker has to play 30-plus minutes per game — is the program in any worse position than last year?

And, furthermore, is the program that far from the national prominence it enjoyed just a short time again?

Actually… no and no.

UF isn’t all that much worse off than the last 2 years, and is only another recruiting class (and, admittedly, at least one year without wholesale departures) from not just being a tournament team but one that could be a Final Four contender again.

For one thing, the team was only a few games away each of the past two years from making the tournament. Truly, let’s say 4 games go differently, and we’re talking about a continued streak rather than how to get back.

Take a look at the rotation that UF had for most of last year:

2008-09
1 - SO 6-5 Calathes, FR 5-8 Walker
2 - SR 6-0 Hodge, FR 6-5 Shipman
3 - SO 6-9 Parsons
4 - JR 6-7 Werner
5 - SO 6-8 Tyus, FR 6-10 Kadji

It’s actually arguable that next year’s team will be a better balanced team. Last year, UF started a 6-0, 165-pound shooting guard, which is ok if it’s 2000 and those are the measurables of a guard named Allen Iverson, but not so much if it’s a well-liked Puerto Rican family man named Walter Hodge.

Add in the mix a 6-7 power forward with some physical limitations and a 6-8, 215-pound center and that the team often played the 6-0 guard and the 5-8 guard at the same TIME and suddenly it’s actually pretty impressive the team even had a chance at the dance last year.

The 2009 edition will have the obvious caution flag of a 5-8 point guard with no true backup (and those two facts are a huge problem, don’t kid yourself), but other than that will have players who are less obviously mismatched than last year.

1 - SO 5-8 Walker
2 - FR 6-3 Boynton, SO 6-4 Shipman
3 - SR 6-7 Werner, JR 6-9 Parsons
4 - JR 6-8 Tyus, FR 6-9 Murphy
5 - JR 6-10 Macklin, SO 6-10 Kadji

Even more interesting is what the team has the chance to look like the NEXT year. The top point guard and one of the top players in the country is 6-3 Brandon Knight, and he’s a Florida prospect who played on the same AAU team as incoming UF guard Kenny Boynton.

I’m not sure if the importance of getting Knight can be overstated. The flagship school of the state can’t lose the nation’s top prospect from its backyard, especially so soon after two national championships. Knight was named the Gatorade National Player of the Year as a JUNIOR this past year, is a great student and Donovan had been recruiting him for years.

Donovan is also recruiting a couple of the top small forward prospects nationally, like 6-7 Harrison Barnes out of Iowa, and a 7-0 center named Fab Melo in Florida. Obviously it’s at best a long shot to get all those prospects, but I wanted to underscore that the team isn’t all that far from being a national contender like this:

1 - FR 6-3 Knight, JR 5-8 Walker
2 - SO 6-3 Boynton, JR 6-4 Shipman
3 - FR 6-7 Barnes, SR 6-9 Parsons
4 - SR 6-8 Tyus, SO 6-9 Murphy, FR 6-8 Young
5 - SR 6-10 Macklin, JR 6-10 Kadji, FR 7-0 Melo

6 upperclassmen, with the top small forward and point guard freshmen in the country. Again, this is almost certain not to happen, but honestly, if John Calipari and Kentucky can basically pull that off in a few months, why can’t Billy Donovan?

Currently I only saw the beginnings of an article on the GatorCountry.com reporting it from Franz Beard, with forum postings speculating that he will be out perhaps 6 months, at least until November.

Again, this is not exactly a surprise — as I pointed out in March, Adam Allen was still unable to bend his leg or jump on it 4 months after his first surgery, which isn’t exactly a promising sign.

This of course underscores UF’s need to find another guard this offseason… somehow.

Insert your own “The Sky is Falling” anecdote here…

Well, top PG recruit John Wall has added his name to the oh-so-impressive list of recruits that John Calipari has added at Kentucky in just a few months on the job. And, despite the more “impassioned” Gator fans who cry CHEATER at the drop of a hat, it’s surprising but not shocking.

In the last year, Calipari has coached the NBA number one pick in a national championship game and made the high profile move to one of college basketball’s flagship institutions in a conference that will begin its first season in a huge ESPN TV contract this year. Calipari had the makings of the top class nationally at Memphis, and was able to bring 2 of those players with him in Wall and Cousins, added PG Eric Bledsoe, and kept the best players that had already signed with the team earlier. Not particularly far-fetched, after one gets over the shock of it all.

Suddenly the entire conference is looking at a different playing field. All this publicity is good for the SEC overall in its first year truly in the ESPN family, and having a possible elite team is a far cry from last year, which was simply its worst showing in 20 years.

With both of the point guards that the Gators were publicly pursuing managing to sign with Kentucky, and assist record holder Nick Calathes continuing to improve his stock in a thin draft (the latest DraftExpress mock Draft after the 5/19 lottery has him listed as the #23 prospect, and he seems confident in an interview with them), the 2010 backcourt look of UF is alarming, to put things mildly.

A starting backcourt of the 5-8 Erving Walker and incoming recruit 6-3 Kenny Boynton actually sounds like something which will perform well in the SEC next year, but behind them is perhaps only 6-5 SG Ray Shipman and no other point guard at all. Pat Cassidy of DimeMag.com sent along this article, by Jason Jordan, where Boynton is quoted as eager and willing to play some point guard, but even if that’s the case, more bodies are needed.

Nothing concrete seems available on the subject, but it seems that Donovan isn’t done just yet, and may add one or even two more backcourt players. Where will they come from, since it seems that all recruitable players have signed or committed?

The speculation is that they could come from a player who unexpectedly is going to qualify, a player asking out of his signed letter-of-intent, a transfer immediately eligible due to hardship status, or a JUCO player. For the record, I don’t want to seem like these are options I’ve come up with — those are from forum conversation, so take them with the pillar of salt required.

For UF to be relying on maybes and hope-sos while Kentucky bags a shiny new class and has players take their names out of the draft is hard to swallow only a few years removed from dual championships — I’ll be waiting with baited breath to see the final outcome in the next few weeks…