Shots From the Dome

Jump to Comments

1. Two straight NIT appearances on the heels of back-to-back championships.

2. The early departure of the assist record holder who just happened to be the team’s leading scorer and 2nd-leading rebounder.

3. The seemingly overnight resurgence of rival Kentucky to a top-ranked recruiting class and national prominence.

4. An overall sense of turmoil after Billy Donovan’s momentary dalliance with the Orlando Magic and what seems to be a steady stream of transfers or early entries.

Conventional wisdom says that the Gator basketball team is poised for even more mediocrity and another NIT appearance.

But… are things truly that bad? Even taking a worst-case scenario of Nick Calathes’ departure and coupling it with injuries preventing G Adam Allen and F Eloy Vargas from possibly playing this year — even if 5-8 PG Erving Walker has to play 30-plus minutes per game — is the program in any worse position than last year?

And, furthermore, is the program that far from the national prominence it enjoyed just a short time again?

Actually… no and no.

UF isn’t all that much worse off than the last 2 years, and is only another recruiting class (and, admittedly, at least one year without wholesale departures) from not just being a tournament team but one that could be a Final Four contender again.

For one thing, the team was only a few games away each of the past two years from making the tournament. Truly, let’s say 4 games go differently, and we’re talking about a continued streak rather than how to get back.

Take a look at the rotation that UF had for most of last year:

2008-09
1 - SO 6-5 Calathes, FR 5-8 Walker
2 - SR 6-0 Hodge, FR 6-5 Shipman
3 - SO 6-9 Parsons
4 - JR 6-7 Werner
5 - SO 6-8 Tyus, FR 6-10 Kadji

It’s actually arguable that next year’s team will be a better balanced team. Last year, UF started a 6-0, 165-pound shooting guard, which is ok if it’s 2000 and those are the measurables of a guard named Allen Iverson, but not so much if it’s a well-liked Puerto Rican family man named Walter Hodge.

Add in the mix a 6-7 power forward with some physical limitations and a 6-8, 215-pound center and that the team often played the 6-0 guard and the 5-8 guard at the same TIME and suddenly it’s actually pretty impressive the team even had a chance at the dance last year.

The 2009 edition will have the obvious caution flag of a 5-8 point guard with no true backup (and those two facts are a huge problem, don’t kid yourself), but other than that will have players who are less obviously mismatched than last year.

1 - SO 5-8 Walker
2 - FR 6-3 Boynton, SO 6-4 Shipman
3 - SR 6-7 Werner, JR 6-9 Parsons
4 - JR 6-8 Tyus, FR 6-9 Murphy
5 - JR 6-10 Macklin, SO 6-10 Kadji

Even more interesting is what the team has the chance to look like the NEXT year. The top point guard and one of the top players in the country is 6-3 Brandon Knight, and he’s a Florida prospect who played on the same AAU team as incoming UF guard Kenny Boynton.

I’m not sure if the importance of getting Knight can be overstated. The flagship school of the state can’t lose the nation’s top prospect from its backyard, especially so soon after two national championships. Knight was named the Gatorade National Player of the Year as a JUNIOR this past year, is a great student and Donovan had been recruiting him for years.

Donovan is also recruiting a couple of the top small forward prospects nationally, like 6-7 Harrison Barnes out of Iowa, and a 7-0 center named Fab Melo in Florida. Obviously it’s at best a long shot to get all those prospects, but I wanted to underscore that the team isn’t all that far from being a national contender like this:

1 - FR 6-3 Knight, JR 5-8 Walker
2 - SO 6-3 Boynton, JR 6-4 Shipman
3 - FR 6-7 Barnes, SR 6-9 Parsons
4 - SR 6-8 Tyus, SO 6-9 Murphy, FR 6-8 Young
5 - SR 6-10 Macklin, JR 6-10 Kadji, FR 7-0 Melo

6 upperclassmen, with the top small forward and point guard freshmen in the country. Again, this is almost certain not to happen, but honestly, if John Calipari and Kentucky can basically pull that off in a few months, why can’t Billy Donovan?